Better decision-making comes from better questions

Leaders today have access to more information than at any point in history. Dashboards update in real time, analytics can reveal patterns across vast amounts of data and AI can produce an answer before we have finished formulating the question.

It should make decision-making easier. Yet more information does not automatically lead to better decisions.

We notice evidence that supports what we already believe. We listen to the convincing anecdote. We trust experience from situations that may no longer apply. And even with excellent data, we can make the wrong decision because we never looked beyond what was put in front of us.

When the pressure rises, we also tend to move faster precisely when we might benefit from stopping.

The challenge for leaders is therefore not simply to become more data-driven. It is to make good decisions when the data is incomplete, the situation is changing and there may be no obviously correct answer.

The biggest danger may be the data you never see

Consider the Bermuda Triangle.

Stories of aircraft and ships mysteriously disappearing there became extraordinarily powerful. If we only look at those cases, a compelling pattern seems to emerge.

To know whether the area is actually unusual, we would need to compare it with what happens elsewhere. Are disappearances more common there than on other heavily travelled routes? Zoom out, and what looked like a pattern may tell a very different story.

That is a simple example of something leaders do surprisingly often. 

We analyse the information placed in front of us without asking what exists outside the frame. Daniel Kahneman described this tendency as What You See Is All There Is. It is one of the traps I think leaders should become much more conscious of.

The same thing happens in business.

A customer complains loudly, so we conclude there is a problem with the product. A dashboard shows impressive growth in one category, so we see an investment opportunity. A successful competitor adopts a new technology, so we assume we should do the same.

None of these observations is necessarily wrong, but the mistake is assuming they are the whole picture.

Data can make this particularly dangerous because numbers give decisions an appearance of objectivity. But selecting the evidence that supports our existing view while ignoring contradictory signals is still cherry-picking, however sophisticated the dashboard looks.

A simple habit can help: before asking what the data tells you, consider what it doesn’t: what am I not seeing and what other explanation could fit the same evidence. 

Sometimes another question is more valuable than another dashboard.

Not every decision deserves the same amount of attention

When everything feels urgent, it is easy to treat every decision as equally important. But a useful distinction is surprisingly simple: the potential impact of the decision and how difficult it would be to reverse.

A low-impact decision that can easily be undone does not need three meetings and five layers of approval. Make it, see what happens, and adjust.

A decision that could fundamentally change the business and would be costly to reverse deserves something different: more time, more scrutiny and better questions.

The aim is not to slow decision-making down. It is to move quickly where you can and deliberately where you must. This is particularly important in uncertain environments. 

Imagine crossing a swamp. You cannot see the entire route to the other side, but you can see a rock that looks solid enough to stand on. So you step onto it. From there, you can see a little further.

Business decisions under uncertainty can work in much the same way. You don’t need to know the entire route before moving. You need a next step that teaches you something without committing you too far.

Instead of asking,“Can we make the final decision?”, ask: “What can we do that will make the next decision better?”

The hardest decision may be changing your mind

Once we have invested in an idea, the investment quickly becomes more than financial. We have argued for it, presented it to the board, built a team around it and attached our credibility to it. Walking away becomes increasingly difficult. 

That is why uncertainty needs boundaries.

Before a major initiative begins, define what success and failure look like, including the signals that would justify continuing, changing course or stopping altogether.

I call these kill criteria. Agreeing on them before you become invested gives you something concrete to return to when judgement inevitably becomes clouded by commitment.

There is a simple test for any leadership team: “What would change our minds?”

If the answer is nothing, you are no longer making a decision but defending a belief.

This is where humility and curiosity become crucial leadership skills. Humility allows us to admit that we might be wrong, and curiosity makes us investigate what we are missing. Listening exposes us to information our own experience cannot provide.

After all, a leader’s job is becoming less about possessing every answer and more about interrogating the answers in front of us.

Leadership has never required knowing everything before acting. It requires knowing what needs to be understood, what can be tested, what must not be compromised, and when there is enough evidence to move. And sometimes, knowing when the evidence is telling you to move in a different direction.
 

Better decisions start with stronger leadership capabilities

How leaders interpret information, challenge assumptions and act under uncertainty can shape the direction of the entire organisation. Explore how Hanken & SSE can help strengthen strategic decision-making and leadership capabilities.

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